The Cycle of Political Violence: A Necessity for Change or a Choice?

Civil and political unrest are not new phenomena. From the Cold War to the First and Second World Wars, history has shown us a recurring pattern in which political unrest leads to chaos and shifting power structures. These periods of instability have destabilized countries and taken regions around the world decades to recover from. However, most of these episodes occurred sporadically, rather than simultaneously across the globe.

In contrast, the  2020s have seen several acts of political violence that have not been limited to a singular geographical region or caused by a single actor. These events are spread across the globe, placing the 2020s among the most politically volatile decades in human history. What makes these occurrences so frequent, and what does history teach us about times of deep political turmoil? Is it possible to learn from history before we repeat it, or is it already too late?

Police special task force personnel block roads to prevent demonstrators from reaching the Presidential Secretariat office in Colombo [File: Arun Sankar/AFP]

Coups, Government Overthrows, and Assassinations

Since 2020, many countries have experienced either attempted or successful coups. Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso, Niger, Gabon, and Madagascar are a few of the countries where the military overthrew the governments in place between 2020 and 2025, with several of these coups receiving civilian support. In other parts of the world, students and Generation Z have been rising up to stand against their governments, leading to revolutions in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Nepal, as well as deadly protests in Indonesia.  

Not all recent political upheavals, however, have resulted in changes of government; some have led instead to the deaths of political leaders. In 2021, the assassination of the 43rd President of Haiti, Jovenel Moise, plunged the country into political turmoil and exacerbated the occurrences of gang-related violence in the country. Similarly, in 2022, the assassination of Shinzo Abe, the former Prime Minister of Japan, shook the country with massive political repercussions that are still reframing the Japanese political sphere today. More widely known are the assassination attempts against the current president of the United States, Donald Trump, while he was on the 2024 campaign trail, resulting in a resurgence in the conversation on political violence in the United States.  

Indian PM Narendra Modi (right) shakes hand with Canada's Justin Trudeau ahead of the G20 summit in September 2023

Individuals outside formal political leadership have also been targeted, with significant political consequences. The murder of a Sikh separatist in Canada, Hardeep Singh Nijjar, in 2024 strained the relationship between Canada and India. Similar strains occurred internally between the Democratic and Republican parties in the United States in 2025 with the murder of right-wing political activist Charlie Kirk. 

Violent Protests and a Rise in Political Polarization

These extreme acts of political violence are often the culmination of prolonged civil unrest. While not all countries have reached this point, many countries are in the midst of unrest. Peru, Paraguay, Serbia, and Kenya are some of the countries facing civil unrest as a result of youth-led protests against corruption and bad governance. Other countries are grappling with heightened political polarization, both affective and ideological. It has resulted in violent protests across many countries over the years, including the Netherlands, Japan, South Africa, and the United Kingdom, among several other countries.

The common thread across these situations is widespread frustration with perceived injustice. As such, citizens choose to unite in an attempt to overthrow their unjust government and reinstate one that they deem representative of their needs. This takes many forms in many countries: anti-immigration, anti-corruption, and anti-colonial. Nevertheless, they all aim to do the same thing - create a system they perceive as fair.

Lessons From History     

History suggests that periods marked by widespread political conflict, such as the 2020s, are often the precursor for a major conflict or events that irrevocably alter society. The civil and political unrest of the Cold War saw the world facing coups, instability, and economic crises. The times leading to and following the First and Second World Wars saw the collapse of empires and several revolutions. The formation and reformation of the countries now called Russia, Germany, Austria, Hungary, and Turkiye occurred during these tumultuous times. 

If history repeats itself, the world may be heading toward democratic erosion, societal instability, and major geopolitical realignments. While we can expect peace in the very long-term, the short-term, medium-term, and even long-term are expected to be wrought with crises if we continue on this trajectory. 

Political violence has been a recurring feature of human society that often results in atrocities when it reaches its peak. This peak is followed by resolutions as well as changes to the world, and adaptation to these changes is the natural way, and maybe the only way, for societies to move forward. However, history also shows that political violence does not need to reach its peak before solutions are pursued.

The question that remains is whether we follow the historical cycle and weather the political upheaval for however long it lasts, or if we, as a society, take active steps to make the world better without continuing down the path of violence. While most major changes in the world have occurred in the aftermath of warfare, there have been changes brought about without it. Women's suffrage, the end of apartheid in South Africa, and the fall of communism in Eastern Europe (the Velvet Revolution in Czechoslovakia) are just a few examples of major changes that did not require conflict. This proves that there is more than one way to achieve societal change. 

So, the question remains: will we learn from history and act before further bloodshed occurs, or are we destined to repeat a brutal and cyclical process indefinitely? The answer is not predetermined; it rests on the choices societies and leaders are willing to make in moments of rising tension.